The Vikings defense should at least get some credit for recovering the fumble as well, even if they didn't cause it. I haven't seen a study that looks at backward passes, but fumbles after non-QB runs and forward passes have the roughly same probabilities, so I would use that number (40/60) as a guestimate. Rk Team Rec FBS FEI OFEI Rk DFEI Rk NDE Rk ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk 1 Georgia 14-1 13-1 1.65 1.58 3 1.93 1 2.65 1 2.23 2 5.72 2 9.78 2 2 Alabama NCAA Week 12 November 23, 3:25 pm ET is way better than this. Now, my opinion of their offense may be unduly affected by Jefferson making incredible catches.On the other hand, I really do think their defense has improved. As if the elderly didn't have enough to worry about these past 2years the Vikings have had negative DVOA in 6 of 9 games this season (!!! Team; Week; Stat Splits by. 2021 Team DVOA Ratings: Overall Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 At 0:51 you can see Parsons in an arm bar, at 4:32 you can see another rusher in an obvious arm bar, and at 9:25 you can see Parsons yanked forward into the ground. I see mean regression happening and barely budging their TO differential because of those insane splits. Founder of Football Outsiders Editor-in-Chief Creator of DVOA and DYAR Worcester, MA. The difference of 6.8 to 6.1 yards per play seems huge, but ultimately it comes out to the Bills outgaining the Vikings by 5 yards for the game. Again, that's a huge change in EPA that we aren't counting in DVOA at all because it says nothing about how good the Vikings defense is. In reply to "This game tests the limits by Lost Ti-Cats Fan. In reply to Injury luck, fumble luck, by Will Allen. They also have 10 more red zone entries compared to their opponents, In reply to so Buffalo defence gets by jmaron. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. Use promo code DERRIK to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Derrik. As the season rolls along, the focus will narrow in on the specifics, but for this week, many of the featured players and units are big-picture projections for the teams in question. You say that the Vikings' defense gets zero credit for the Bills fumble in the endzone. They lead the NFL with a 28.6% pressure rate. by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA. Not everyone gets an 07 style vengeance tour over the league. It's like someone sprinkled in a little 2017 Case Keenum into the mix, but with less arch on the long throws. They're 25th in pass DVOA since Week 4, below such dominant aerial attacks as Chicago and Tennessee. It depends on what you mean by a strong division. It's very similar to LeBron/Shaq in the NBA getting less calls than they should because they do not demonstrate the proper reaction to draw the foul even though the impact/position of the offender is the same. All three players are listed as questionable for this Sunday's divisional game against the Cowboys, but if one or any of them are out, the Eagles may roll with a conservative game plan once again. Historical Lookups. Also long gains are field position dependent. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. Keep up with the latest storylines, expert analysis, highlights, scores and more. Micah is going to have to figure out how to beat holds and double teams just like the rest of the elite pass rushers in the NFL. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). With the Ravens, it's worries about the offense. It's different rules for different players because they are truly elite. Left tackle Jordan Mailata missed the entire game, center Jason Kelce went down halfway through, and guard Landon Dickerson only played about 20 minutes. Even in the era of 40 year old qbs, he's nearly certain to not be as good as he was when younger. near the middle of the pack in DVOA and DYAR, both rushing and receiving. I see their offense being a little better than what DVOA says, and see their defense as being a little worse. In terms of DVOA, the Jaguars now have the No. DVOA hates boom/bust teams. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA. Anyway, it's certainly possible that DVOA is underrating the Vikings a little bit. The entire offseason vibes felt like a team treating this season as a victory lap. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. I expected him to be more reliable. Teams with larger standard deviation of play success/value. Absolutely! The Cowboys sent tape to the league for an explanation regarding their pass rushers being put in blatant choke holds and arm bars in the Lions game and got no response. Will it sustain ? Part of that is their favoring towards two-high shells and blitzes, both of which can lead the quarterback to force the ball to the running back, but as the DVOA suggests, they're still subpar at stopping those targets NFL Week 5 - The Buffalo Bills remain on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings five weeks into the 2022 season.Philadelphia and Baltimore also stay in second and third place. 1993 AFC West (8.8) Regardless, if the bills recover that fumble it's a safety and the Vikings still have a very reasonable chance of winning that game. In reply to I seem to recall that DVOA by fyo. Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush; USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss; & Support Derrik Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . As a result of all that pressure, Cowboys opponents average an NFL-low 174.5 passing yards per game and just 5.6 yards per passing play, the third-lowest figure in the NFL. They did not want Jalen Hurts three- or five-step dropping from shotgun without play-action. by Team; by Week Revised as of 12/07/22, through Week 13. Their defense is average, but the offense and special teams are both hideous. With the Ravens, it's worries about the offense. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. A reminder that all our free stats pages, including DVOA and player position stats, require registration to view. He returns in 20% of simulations by Week 15, 60% of simulations by Week 16, and all simulations by Week 17. DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason forecast with weighted DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how a team will play the rest of the season. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. The Cowboys remained in second place in defensive DVOA, with the New England Patriots and Bills switching places in first and third place. Nick Bosa has been getting held continuously since the second half of his rookie year. Use promo code TANIER to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Mike Tanier. Today you can keep holding because the odds of getting called are much lower. Before Seattle he did the same thing at USC, creating one of the most dominant runs in college football history. Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Maybe I am just projecting this, but they feel more fragile than a team this strong should. They have the most runs over 20 yards of all 32 units, and are averaging five yards per carry. NFL Week 10 - The Buffalo Bills may have fallen to the Minnesota Vikings in the most exciting game of the year, but we still think they are the best team in the NFL.The Bills are back on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings despite the loss. I could keep the original property while scaling the numbers down as much as I wanted. At that point, almost for opposite reasons, there was uncertainty about what Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff were as quarterbacks. Bosa got held the entire SB against Chiefs and drew almost no calls. The main problem, though, is that these extraordinary plays rarely repeat. And he was very good in the playoffs too. They have 6 Q1 TDs, 7 Q2 TDs, just 3 Q3 TDs, and 10 Q4 TDs this year. Carroll was already named one of two All-Decade Coaches for the 2010s by the Pro Football Hall of Fame, having turned around a middling Seahawks franchise into one of the top 2 or 3 most successful teams since 2010. WebMIKE TANIER has been writing Football Outsiders Almanac chapters for so long that he feels like Ringo making yet another special guest appearance during a Paul McCartney show. When you adjust each of their seasons for the quality of their OL play Goff and Stafford have incredibly similar production. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. The off-season chatter suggesting the freshly-ringed Stafford should be a HOF candidate was absolutely stupid/overblown, but there's no doubting he was good last year. Coach Mike McDaniel on the team remains on the West Coast as they prepare for Sunday nights battle against Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. I was a bit disappointed. This is not a paywall*! Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. The justification for having the Bills' single game DVOA so much higher than the Vikings for this game only makes sense if you don't think about it at all. I mean, not as good asJohn Fassel has been doing. Football Outsiders ranks the Browns offensive line as a top-10 run blocking unit. 27 defense (down from No. 8 in the league with a team DVOA of 14.1 percent. The Commanders had only one drive of three plays. Flags fly forever as they say. That would suggest the two teams were much more even than the DVOA output suggests. Since last January, it's really been about what happens this coming January, and that may be how the McDermott/Allen years go. In fact, their DVOA rating moved up this week.. 2004 AFC East (7.75) But how much is the elbow? Maybe I am just projecting this, but they feel more fragile than a team this strong should. That game came out a lot closer, the rare game where both teams had significantly positive DVOA. NCAA Week 12 November 23, 3:25 pm ET DVOA Analysis. so Buffalo defence gets credit for the right guard stepping on the QBs foot which results in the QB fumbling trying to pitch the ball to the RB? They do have a +2 interception margin (eight thrown, 10 taken away) but their outstanding +8 turnover margin is mostly the product of recovering 67% of fumbles (not including muffed kicks). by Team; by Week Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Rk Team Rec FBS F+ OF+ Rk DF+ Rk FEI Rk SP+ Rk; 1: Georgia: 13-0: 12-0: 2.67: 1.69: 7: 2.40: 1: 1.51: 1: 36.7 What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? 1) I don't see a problem with that. Part of that is their favoring towards two-high shells and blitzes, both of which can lead the quarterback to force the ball to the running back, but as the DVOA suggests, they're still subpar at stopping those targets i agree the defence is improving. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. NFL playoff picture and clinching scenarios Week 14 - Through TNF results. 8 in the league with a team DVOA of 14.1 percent. Thatll win you 12-14 games and maybe even a SB ring. But occasionally you run into a bad matchup or just come out flat on offense, and the whole thing falls apart. In reply to Welcome to the club buddy by Kaepernicus, Offensive linemen were using their hands back in the 60s. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. The Eagles played a sloppy game like the Cowboys did, hence the reference to letting bad officiating impact a game. They are the 3rd best team in the league when it comes to creating turnovers. by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA by. by Team; by Week From game 2 through 6, the defense was simply atrocious. Shuffling around also moves the New England Patriots up a spot, which puts the entire AFC East into the DVOA top 12 at this point. They had 202 yards and 10 points for the rest of the game which is a borderline average outing for teams playing in Buffalo so far this season. Jacksonville dropped three spots after a loss to the Houston Texans, which puts them down at No. analytics you can't get anywhere else. But the Dallas Cowboys leapt into second place -- and first place in the NFC -- by hammering the Minnesota Vikings 40-3. It's wild now that the perception has flipped and analytics love Allen's offense but the tape is concerning. 1983 NFC West (7.25) Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Georgia remains on top of our college football ratings, with a Big Ten/SEC split in the top five. Unfortunately, I expected FO fans to have passed the first two rules of fight club and some have not. This is going to hurt you more than it hurts me. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. In terms of DVOA, the Jaguars now have the No. by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA. The other worrying trend is that Allen isnt taking care of the football - 10 INTs (leads the league) plus 8 fumbles. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. Micah has to learn how to deal with it before he takes the next leap because the NFL is not going to let monster pass rushers destroy fantasy football leagues around the country. I think Minn has won bc of turnover advantage and they've have started on their own 31.4 vs 26 yd line for opps. So, maybe they won't? But -- here's the biggest difference between this game and the Bills-Vikings game -- the Commanders ran 81 plays compared to just 47 for the Eagles. THE SHORT VERSION: DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. In reply to "but DVOA says the Bills by Lost Ti-Cats Fan. In reply to I'd be curious how we would by theslothook. Busted drive rate (DBD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that gain zero or negative yards. Those fumbles are almost always recovered by the offense, and I give no credit to the defense on those plays because the defense has nothing to do with a bad exchange. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. Fumbling in your own endzone, up 3 points with less than a minute left to play, and failing to recover it, thus allowing your opponent a go-ahead touchdown, should have an off-the-charts negative effect by any measure of efficiency and game situation. 8? Yes. Their 1st Q3 TD was in week 7. Historical Lookups. At the moment the only positions that can exploit these athletic mismatches in the NFL are on offense or in the secondary. In my opinion last year's team folds when they're down 10-27, there's something different this year. Terms at draftkings.com/sportsbook. I'm interested to know how much of a defensive adjustment there is here too, this is a Bills defense that coming into this game (with a small sample size) was allowing 9 points per game and just over 300 yards per game at home. 15 special teams (down from No. You may be tempted to disregard it as an outlier, but a better approach would be to use it to assign better values to extraordinary plays that better align with their impact on the game. 2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Overall Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. The facemask was a reference to the Eagles game, where the 4th quarter turned on Goedert being facemasked to the ground and "fumbling." I am kind of glad that it has because it dispenses this view that special teams is all about coaching and if you just had the right coaching in place, special teams would be fixed. Football Outsiders rank Dolphins top 10 in DVOA metric through 13 weeks, Dolphins vs. Chargers preview: LAs offense hampering Justin Herbert, Injuries decimating defense. I have to wonder if Dabolls departure has anything to do with that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAy-mW6Kg9EHere's the Bear's game. WebMIKE TANIER has been writing Football Outsiders Almanac chapters for so long that he feels like Ringo making yet another special guest appearance during a Paul McCartney show. 2022 AFC East through Week 10 (7.25) *snaps on gloves* I added information to that table on how each of these teams did at the end of the season, but I honestly don't think you learn anything about the Vikings from that. Or DVOA by quarter in general. If you're interested in our game picks, you can find them on this page. For example, Four teams with 0% DVOA result in a weighted average of 0%, while a combination of two team at 50% DVOA and two at -50% DVOA comes to a weighted average of -13.4%. 2013 NFC West (7.25) In fact, their DVOA rating moved up this week.. 1991 NFC West (8.75) Geometric mean of 100% + DVOA (which you described) could work. For explanation purposes, let's simplify play success to yards per play Basically, if 2 teams both average 5 yards/play, but one of them has mostly 4, 5 and 6 yard plays, and the other has mostly 0, 1, 9 and 10 yard plays, the 2nd team would be considered boom or bust. Ohio State, Alabama, and Georgia are a trio of powerhouse programs that started the season way out in front of the pack, and despite chaos wreaking havoc among the masses, they're still hanging out in an exclusive tier. This is the 1st year Goff has looked like he can be better than his context. The playoff odds stuff on FO converts DVOA advantage to a winning percentage, so that could be used instead. They're 25th in pass DVOA since Week 4, below such dominant aerial attacks as Chicago and Tennessee. WebGeorgia remains on top of our college football ratings, with a Big Ten/SEC split in the top five. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? You do not often see a huge gap like that where the team with the better DVOA loses the game. Jacksonville dropped three spots after a loss to the Houston Texans, which puts them down at No. * 21+ (19+ CA-ONT) (18+ NH/WY). The Miami Dolphins face the Los Angeles Chargers in a Sunday Night Football Week 14 contest. in. I believe that any gain over 40 yards starts to be discounted, because gains of 40+ yards are not predictive. I'd be curious how we would view Jared Goff if they had won that super bowl with him doing as little as he did on offense. Use promo code TANIER to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Mike Tanier. Except even that team with its 16th ranked offense is miles ahead of this team, despite Goff's reputation buried in mud by that point. Perhttps://www.nfl.com/stats/team-stats/, Viking are tied for 20th in 20+ yard plays, and tied for 11th in 40+ yard plays. Obviously not enough if their overall DVOA is +41.7% for the game. Read the article METHODS TO THE MADNESS for more information. But it was very close, and that's before we get into things we don't account for in DVOA like completely missed facemask penalties. by Team; by Week Things get a bit screwy if you have two teams with under -100% DVOA, but that's not a significant worry - extremely unlikely after one game played, ridiculously unlikely after two, unimaginable after more - and can be fixed by multiplying 1+DVOA for both teams, taking the negative of the absolute value of the result, and multiplying by 1+DVOA for the remaining two teams. "This game tests the limits and baseline values for a metric like DVOA. The Buffalo Bills clung to the top spot in DVOA entering Monday Night Football in Week 11. Almost everything the Eagles called was an RPO, a screen, or a one-on-one ball to A.J. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. That's no doubt true in general, but I think that's not true with some particular players. by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA. I'd also want to say that the variance is interesting. In reply to Also long gains are field by ChrisS. DVOA Analysis. In reply to Bills defensive DVOA by laflamablanca87. That said, while I anticipated a down year, I did not anticipate a trainwreck season. I thought the Bears game was a perfect microcosm of the Goff experience. I saw the Bills explicably get destroyed by the Colts a year ago; a game that was even more embarassing than the score would indicate. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? Wasnt it 2 picks and 2 fumbles? The Buffalo Bills clung to the top spot in DVOA entering Monday Night Football in Week 11. Baltimore simulation assumes that Lamar Jackson will miss Week 14. In reply to I don't understand the idea by Noahrk. Because DVOA discounts fumbles and caps big plays, it discounts both plays. NFL Week 10 - The Buffalo Bills may have fallen to the Minnesota Vikings in the most exciting game of the year, but we still think they are the best team in the NFL.The Bills are back on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings despite the loss. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. This means they could win it all (regardless of whether or not they win the division and get the bye), or they could be one and done (again, regardless of whether they win the division or get the bye). Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. I guess after the Super Bowl, torquing a guy to the ground by his face isn't a penalty anymore. He sheds blocks quickly, has incredibly powerful hands, and has twitchy acceleration. In reply to As a wise poster recently by takeleavebelieve. DVOA Analysis. Since the Packers moved on from star wideout Davante Adams, Rodgers has failed to get on the same page as his receivers. Staff Writer Their 24.0% defensive rushing DVOA performance against the Chicago Bears saw the Patriots give up 82 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries by Justin Fields. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? If you want to see data from the current season on Monday, including all of Sunday's games, you will need to be an FO+ subscriber. Keep up with the latest storylines, expert analysis, highlights, scores and more. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. The Bills had already moved back into the No. 2016 NFC East (6.25) We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. 10 offense (up from No. If you look at the same thing for defense, you find a huge difference on first downs. 7 total isn't much (t-8th with 8 more teams), so they're above average but not some insane outlier like last year's Seahawks who had 15 plays of 40+ yards on just 954 plays (Vikings have 7 in 590). With a by Vincent Verhei. The highest correlated factor to explaining the outcome of any particular game is points scored: it has a 100% backwards-looking explanatory power. Seahawks 1, 49ers 6, Cardinals 10, Rams 12, 2t. 27 defense (down from No. (The Vikings are only responsible for the fumble in that they pinned the Bills on the goal line but we've already given the Vikings' offense credit for that by measuring the success of their previous drive.). 7 and moves Tampa Bay and San Francisco up. But how much of that strong EPA on defense is caused by Josh Allen's aborted snap fumble on his own goal line and the Vikings recovering it for a touchdown? They have the most runs over 20 yards of all 32 units, and are averaging five yards per carry. Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush; USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss; & Support Derrik Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. WebDVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. In reply to What even is a boom or bust by takeleavebelieve. I felt it during the 05 season with the Colts, where every week felt like either doomsday or relief. near the middle of the pack in DVOA and DYAR, both rushing and receiving. What a humbug Josh Allen has been the last two games. It was a really bad play! They are the worst team in the league when it comes to turnovers on offense. Isn't the first play more valuable precisely because it was from your own 20? Before Seattle he did the same thing at USC, creating one of the most dominant runs in college football history. Revised as of 12/07/22, through Week 13. One is listed as an aborted play. Overall records (Rec) and records against FBS opponents (FBS) are specified. Elon buy FO too? Founder of Football Outsiders Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and Miamis offense are top 10 in points per game, top five in yards per game and the teams defense is averaging four sacks over the last three weeks, which is the third most in the NFL. And here are the best divisions by DVOA ranks before 2002: 1. Once you have enough statistical data over several years (or decades), then we can match up statistics to what we see and perhaps have a specific number be the threshold.. The top two teams in DVOA both lost this weekend, On ST, my eye test is we are better than DVOA. WebMIKE TANIER has been writing Football Outsiders Almanac chapters for so long that he feels like Ringo making yet another special guest appearance during a Paul McCartney show. Key Unit/Player: DAL Defensive Line, PHI Offensive Line. Buffalo can't reliably close games on defense, nor finish in the red zone on offense. It's interesting to observe that play wasn't the biggest delta-EPA play in the game -- Cook's TD was. Sure, giving the Vikings credit for end zone touchdown recovery would improve the explanatory power of this particular game. 22 last week), and the No. In reply to Isn't the first play more by siggyllama. Historical Lookups. That division is not as impressive as the AFC East in DVOA, but the entire division is also at .500 or above. by Aaron Brooks G. And that's actually kind of reasonable to an extent because Stafford, for all his faults, is much better than Flacco or Brad Johnson or certainly Trent dilfer. The two offensive fumbles by the Vikings never had a realistic chance of going to the bills. Touchdown rate (DTD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a touchdown. Their 24.0% defensive rushing DVOA performance against the Chicago Bears saw the Patriots give up 82 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries by Justin Fields. You only need to register (for free) and then log in to the site to view these pages. That the Vikings are more likely to win because of their ability to recover non-forced opponent fumbles in the end zone? According to former FO columnist Bill Barnwell, the WPA swing on that fumble was about 95%, which is the largest in the history of that metric. 2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Overall Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 All times listed as Eastern. pf plays are either under 2 yards(bust) or over Y yards(boom). The Patriots allowed a 40.5% defensive rushing DVOA against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3, led by Lamar Jackson's 107 rushing yards and a touchdown on 11 carries. Would be to calculate 1+DVOA for each team in the division and multiply the results. Offense All EPA/Success Rate stats are via rbsdm.com DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five The only reason you might say it "favors" consistent gains is because long gains aren't all that predictive and don't happen often. It completely invalidates the whole exercise. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming. They're 25th in pass DVOA since Week 4, below such dominant aerial attacks as Chicago and Tennessee. The games we've lost we had 2nd half leads we couldn't protect. DAVE is currently 24% preseason forecast and 76% actual performance for teams with 10 games, and 36% preseason forecast and 64% actual performance for teams with nine games. Historical Lookups. Replay this season w/ the same teams being fielded, and the Vikings could easily be 3-6 or 5-4 or anything really without much of a DVOA difference. OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. WebGeorgia remains on top of our college football ratings, with a Big Ten/SEC split in the top five. Down Opponent adjustments are now at full strength. Stafford is 34. But Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) rankings has the Cardinals ranking only above the Houston Texans, making them the second-worst team in the league. Skewing models to predict once-in-a-decade events inherently results in them being less accurate at predicting everyday events. And all three of those ended in wins. In reply to My eyes only differ with by Will Allen. Treating these fumble recoveries as the Vikings recovering 3 50-50 balls, and 1 1% chance recovery is not good process. Historical Lookups. 5 yards of start position a game seems like a bigger deal to me. I think the harmonic mean might be more instructive in this case, which suggests that among the teams Aaron mentioned: 5. In reply to I'm pretty sure that's the by CVBoot. But they won big while the Philadelphia Eagles (now fourth overall) narrowly avoided an upset at the hands of the Indianapolis Colts and the Baltimore Ravens (third) struggled offensively in a 13-3 win over the Carolina Panthers. Use promo code DERRIK to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Derrik. Football Outsiders ranks Miami at No. Two picks, two fumbles by Minnesota, although the Bills only get credit for one of those fumbles because one of them was the aborted play (incomplete backwards pass, I think). We could look at the average of all four teams in DVOA.Or, we can look at the average of all four teams' DVOA ranks. Anyways, if they want to win a playoff game, their defense still needs to get bettter. 14 offense, the No. Disregarding the kneel down, the Vikings offense put up 16 points and nearly 300 yards of offense in their final 4 drives. The Orange are 6-0 and already surpassed preseason expectations. Film Room and Draft Expert Their variance, as I see it, comes in the fact they seem to be successful early and late in the 1st half, and in the 4th quarter. by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA. The Vikings have been doing a lot of failing on early downs, then throwing for 12 yards on 3rd and 8. While Hurts' inconsistencies as a true dropback passer play some part in that, the depleted offensive line was the biggest issue on Sunday. DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) takes every single play during the season and compares success to a league-average baseline based on situation and opponent. by Team; by Week It's still a little strange that DVOA doesn't have the Kansas City Chiefs higher -- they did move up one spot this week to No. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Hard to define what the Y should be. Click here for the full table. 2021 Team DVOA Ratings: Defense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 If there are any TCU fans still reading that haven't yet thrown their device across the room in disgust at these numbers and the obvious disrespect, I can certainly understand the perspective that these ratings and projections are meaningless in the context of producing a Big 12 champion.The Horned Frogs are undefeated (8-0 overall, 7-0 Odds & lines subject to change. Bryan Anger is averaging 48.7 yards per punt. DVOA has them 21st. Use promo code DERRIK to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Derrik. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? I did a little bit of research into where the differences are between DVOA and these other methodologies. near the middle of the pack in DVOA and DYAR, both rushing and receiving. That still makes them one of the worst 8-1 teams ever, if not the absolute worst 8-1 team ever. Basically it looks like their offense is going to get better and the defense is going to get significantly worse if the turn over numbers regress to the mean at the same time. Bad losses to Marshall and Stanford knocked Notre Dame out of playoff discussion, but as Clemson learned, their defense gives them a chance against any contender in their path. The onus would be on you to prove the normality of the sample before proceeding to use standard deviation or z-score. I guess that's outweighed by the lack of predictive power. by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA by. DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) takes every single play during the season and compares success to a league-average baseline based on situation and opponent. The run defence has also improved since the start of season, and Hunter is having bigger impact. Now, there are two ways to do this. Founder of Football Outsiders Editor-in-Chief Creator of DVOA and DYAR Worcester, MA. Indianapolis DAVE rating is higher because it is now once again based on a projection with Matt Ryan at quarterback. Rk Team Rec FBS DFEI DDE Rk DTD Rk DVD Rk DFD Rk DBD Rk DTO Rk 1 Georgia 14-1 13-1 1.93 1.42 1 .062 1 .169 1 .562 2 .169 15 .131 33 2 With the seven-team playoff field in each conference, it is now possible for an entire division to make the playoffs in the same year. If you want, break the range into rankings by quintiles or by values of stddev, to create tiers of boom-or-bust. The only one that was close was the Allen fumble in the end zone, it doesn't make sense to treat all of those recoveries as fluke 50-50 plays when only one of them was. Web2022 F+ ratings combining FEI and SP+. That may or may not be his fault - they could just be bad players, as you're getting at - but it's also entirely possible that they simply hired a different coach, not a better one. Though he finished in the top 10 running backs with over 3,800 yards from scrimmage in those three years, the Raiders declined to exercise Jacobs' fifth-year option in April.. And so Jacobs, in the midst of an All-Pro-caliber season, is about to hit the free-agent market. Well, check out the stat splits: That last one is particularly important because one of those fumbles was the botched center-quarterback exchange for the Bills that resulted in Minnesota's go-ahead touchdown. 2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Offense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. I.e. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings. Historical Lookups. That's a sizeable difference, and it seems to be entirely related to the value of Minnesota's punt returns. Not that either team will accomplish much this year, but I find it humorous that Goff has a +17% passing DVOA compared to Stafford's -9.6% (to be fair, Goff has a very good O-line, and Stafford's is trash), and the Rams' pick they traded away to the Lions has a decent shot of being higher than the Lions' own pick. Offense All EPA/Success Rate stats are via rbsdm.com Maybe that's where you and I differ because I do think they're much closer than people otherwise think. The ranks are bsaically the same for each down, but when you put it all together, DVOA just has the Vikings lower than EPA per play. Injury luck, fumble luck, and schedule luck are the most significant areas of superiority the current regime has shown, compared to the old, so far. The hand-waiving about fumble luck is one of my biggest points. The Patriots allowed a 40.5% defensive rushing DVOA against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3, led by Lamar Jackson's 107 rushing yards and a touchdown on 11 carries. The Cowboys remained in second place in defensive DVOA, with the New England Patriots and Bills switching places in first and I thought Stafford was disappointing last year, too. Here are the best divisions by DVOA ranks since 2002: 1. When you ask how much competition did the division winner have? you look at the other three teams. Patriots 2, Bills 3, Jets 4, Dolphins 22. Since 2006 The anchor on their special teams ranking is the XP/FG value, and you're right, that hasn't hurt the Vikings yet (other than all of the Pepto Bismol and Alka Seltzer they need to ingest). NFL Week 10 - The Buffalo Bills may have fallen to the Minnesota Vikings in the most exciting game of the year, but we still think they are the best team in the NFL.The Bills are back on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings despite the loss. 1) Standard Deviation/z-score methodology assumes normality, which Im not sure is the case here. 11 last week), the No. The Dukes have a suffocating defense and a weak schedule, and they're playing this season with nothing to lose. Theyre tied with the Patriots and Tennessee Titans with 106 pass pressures, per Pro Football Reference. If you take the standard deviation of all their plays, you can quantify the boom-or-bustiness of the team. More precisely, it says the Bills were significantly better than the Vikings at the sort of things that correlate to future success. Because of that huge discrepancy in the number of plays run, the Post-Game Win Expectancy formula favors the Commanders, suggesting that we would expect Washington to win this game 58% of the time. But for the Packers' situation, specifically, a couple caveats: 1) I got the impression there was a (self-imposed) mandate to use Amari Rodgers as the returner in order to get immediate value (theoretically) out of a project of a 3rd round pick. The Dolphins will look to get back on track ahead of next weeks divisional battle against Buffalo, which also was flexed into primetime. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. FPI and EPA per play put them about 12th in the league. The technique is to keep your hands inside and grab the shoulder pads without ripping jersey or stopping momentum when they get around you. We'll see how things play out over the next few weeks, as I mentioned, the Vikes play DVOA's #4th, #9th and #12th ranked teams. Micah Parsons and the Cowboys pass rush are leading the charge, of course. That meant it took two first rounders plus a downgrade in age to trade lower downside for greater upside. The Eagles had five different drives of just three plays, not counting their final desperation play. It may not be appropriate to use. Everyone else can see it in replay, why can't the booth? WebGeorgia remains on top of our college football ratings, with a Big Ten/SEC split in the top five. 2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Offense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 Let's get to it. A team that scores a long TD every play is the best team ever. But Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) rankings has the Cardinals ranking only above the Houston Texans, making them the second-worst team in the league. They have the most runs over 20 yards of all 32 units, and are averaging five yards per carry. WebFootball Outsiders' revolutionary metrics that break down every single play of the NFL season. Right now, the entire AFC East makes the playoffs in 16.2% of our simulations, and at least three of the AFC East teams make it in 82.1% of simulations. Bills 1, Dolphins 7, Jets 9, Patriots 12, 4. Buffalo finished Sunday's game with 41.7% DVOA compared to -13.0% DVOA for the Vikings. The last time we came out flat and stayed flat long enough to get boatraced was week 11 vs. the Colts last season. They have a 45% success rate on offense and have allowed a 47% success rate on defense. 10 offense (up from No. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. He returns in 20% of simulations by Week 15, 60% of simulations by Week 16, and all simulations by Week 17. 2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Offense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 DVOA of defense against receivers does not include sacks or passes with no intended receiver listed. The entire NFC East makes the playoffs in 12.8% of today's simulations, and at least three of the NFC East teams make it in 88.6% of simulations. In reply to But how much of that strong by Aaron Brooks G. 6.85 vs 6.32 -- by virtue of being at the 1, the Bills had a negative expected EPA at the snap. If you recover, that's the very definition on luck, situational probabilities notwithstanding. They rank 26th in DVOA allowed on running back targets while surrendering a league-high 8.6 running back targets per game. WebBe the best Seattle Seahawks fan you can be with Bleacher Report. If the mean gain is 4 yards and the standard deviation is only 1 yard, that doesn't feel like "boom or bust" at all. It seems like Vikings have played their best football in the 4 quarter. Call 1-800-GAMBLER. The next three fumbles might have members of the opposing team near them, and would be no more predictive than these three. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. They remind me a lot of the Manning/Dungy Colts - an outstanding pass offense that gets ahead quickly, and a defense built around defending the pass to protect those leads. 2021 Team DVOA Ratings: Overall Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming. We seem headed for a repeat of last year with Buffalo gagging away the much needed home field advantage. Dolphins vs. Chargers: Miami elevates wide receiver Freddie Swain from the practice squad, Miami Dolphins elevate wide receiver Freddie Swain for Sunday Nights Matchup vs. the Los Angeles Chargers, sluggish performance against the San Francisco 49ers, Dolphins vs. Chargers: How to watch, game time, streaming, injury report and more, Dolphins vs. Chargers Week 14 full game coverage: Preview, in-game, and recaps, Dolphins vs Chargers Preview & Prediction: Week 14, 2023 NFL Pro Bowl: Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill Top-5 Vote-Getters early on. NFL Week 5 - The Buffalo Bills remain on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings five weeks into the 2022 season.Philadelphia and Baltimore also stay in second and third place. Football Outsiders ranks Miami at No. Football Outsiders ranks Miami at No. Aaron Schatz. 2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Defense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 Historical Lookups. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. Rams 5, 49ers 6, Seahawks 9, Cardinals 10, 5. The Bills don't get credit for that one, in the first quarter. In reply to the Vikings have had by AFCNFCBowl. Right. The Eagles called their passing offense against the Cardinals like they were scared of true dropback passes. Rk Team Rec FBS FEI OFEI Rk DFEI Rk NDE Rk ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk 1 Georgia 14-1 13-1 1.65 1.58 3 1.93 1 2.65 1 2.23 2 5.72 2 9.78 2 2 Alabama Our special teams methodology puts them 25th! Productive in the right circumstances, but can't really be trusted to be a long-term solution at quarterback. Well, if your average play is X yards, you could define boom-or-bust as, over 50% of plays are 1 standard deviation from the mean. Rk Team Rec FBS FEI OFEI Rk DFEI Rk NDE Rk ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk 1 Georgia 14-1 13-1 1.65 1.58 3 1.93 1 2.65 1 2.23 2 5.72 2 9.78 2 2 Alabama Web2022 F+ ratings combining FEI and SP+. In reply to RE: Packers special teams by big10freak. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Aaron Schatz. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. If there are any TCU fans still reading that haven't yet thrown their device across the room in disgust at these numbers and the obvious disrespect, I can certainly understand the perspective that these ratings and projections are meaningless in the context of producing a Big 12 champion.The Horned Frogs are undefeated (8-0 overall, 7-0 Down Maybe that's kind of true if a coach devotes more of emphasis to it at the expense of other areas, but not in the way most fans think. Historical Lookups. DVOA is per-play. You may be tempted to disregard it as an outlier, but a better approach would be to use it to assign better values to extraordinary plays that better align with their impact on the game.". Philadelphia outgained the Commanders on a per play basis, 5.91 to 4.34. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Week 11 DVOA Preview: Cowboys Top the NFC, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . third-strongest "surprise win" since 2010, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAy-mW6Kg9E, Another way to think about strong divisions, ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). 2021 Team DVOA Ratings: Defense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Defense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 You can feel the tension surrounding Buffalo and the enormous expectations weighing over the organization and the fanbase. Of course not. The Vikings have nothing really in common with the other teams on that table. Injury luck seems to at least have some strategy/skill element to it. If "better values" for these sorts of plays improve the predictability, they'll adjust. Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . When you ask how much competition the second place team had for second place, you look at the next two teams. Follow Email Archive . Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? I thought I would go back and look at the best divisions in DVOA history to see how this year's AFC East compares. Football Outsiders ranks the Browns offensive line as a top-10 run blocking unit. What if we looked at the average DVOA instead of the average DVOA rank? AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, (select parishes), MD, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OR, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY, CA-ONT only.Eligibility restrictions apply. On a sack it's pretty much 50/50. Fumble luck is fickle. On Tuesday morning when we post the update with Monday Night Football added in, all of the free stats pages become free again. But if you use any kind of play-by-play breakdown instead of just total points scored and allowed, this team is not a top-10 team right now. I think all that can be said of them is that they're high variance, with the 'top' being very high, and the 'valley' being about NFL average. Stafford never had a bad healthy season after his rookie year, until this year at age 34(assuming he's healthy now), and racked up several top 10 DVOA seasons with the more frequently than not poorly coached Lions. The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings. Not sure how it's happening but that 50 to 60 yards a game. in. Editor-in-Chief Now bad qbs look like bad qbs; Heinecke would have ranked at the bottom in last week's quick reads, absent a ref blocking a Viking safety, gifting the Commies a 56 yard td. Welcome to All-32, a game-by-game preview of every matchup on the NFL slate each week. More info available here! In other words, see comment 80 about the monstrous negative value of the Bills fumble in their own end zone. The Cowboys are also quietly getting outstanding play from their special teams. The Eagles were at 25.0% DVOA and the Commanders at 16.8% DVOA. You close your eyes and this team looks an awful lot like the LARM team that dissapointed following the SB loss. WebBe the best Seattle Seahawks fan you can be with Bleacher Report. They're still calculated (no risky throws on 2nd and 1, for example), but he's not hoping for YAC and settling for a punt by throwing short on 3rd and long as often as in years past. I don't watch from behind the sofa. the ST coach is a dude. Brown, with only a few other plays sprinkled throughout to keep the defense honest. Like the exact specific criteria. The top two teams in DVOA both lost this weekend, and they lost despite both teams having a higher DVOA rating than their opponents. Creator of DVOA andDYAR Saying botched snaps are recovered 99% of the time by the offense may be true, idk if there's actually data to back that up, but most of those scenarios where there's a botched snap are not identical to the scenario in this game, where the defense is lined up and shooting directly at the center. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Vegas agrees, making Minnesota a home underdog to Dallas this week. Historical Lookups. I think Stafford is better and by a non-trivial amount, but not enough to justify two first rounders. He returns in 20% of simulations by Week 15, 60% of simulations by Week 16, and all simulations by Week 17. They also have 124 additional yards on penalties. by Team; by Week With a record of 8-4 and wins in five of the last six weeks, even the advanced statistics are favoring the Dolphins. Another big gap comes on special teams. In terms of DVOA, the Jaguars are the No. With the Ravens, it's worries about the offense. That makes this the third-strongest "surprise win" since 2010, ahead of only a Titans-Jaguars game from 2013 and the Miami won over Baltimore back in Week 2 of this season. In reply to The off-season chatter by BJR. The first lesson you learn as a fan is you aren't the smartest guy in the room. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? So in games Viking's fans have cared about, 21 of 24 have been one score games. The point of DVOA and similar evaluation methods is to look beyond all of the weirdness that results in points actually scored and identify what part of it translates into future scoring power (or stopping power in the case of defenses). There's a part of me that almost wanted him to miss Sunday's game so we could see if the offensive staff can plan a winning strategy or if they're just counting on the Josh Allen "and a miracle occurs" offense now. non-garbage possessions in FBS vs. FBS games. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? In reply to Justification Makes No Sense by Jblades13, "but DVOA says the Bills were significantly better than the Vikings. The Vikings recovering those first 3 fumbles wasn't luck because there were legitimately no Bills players in the area to recover them. Unfortunately, he was pretty bad at it - so their return game might improve now that he doesn't have the job. In reply to Well, if your average play by KnotMe. Next week against the Bears, more of the same obvious holding. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. As of this week, we are now posting DVOA data on Monday instead of waiting until Tuesday as in the past. Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush; USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss; & Support Derrik Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . The Cowboys lead the NFL with 42 sacks entering MNF. The Vikings plummeted from 17th to 23rd with Sunday's loss. That will favor the 2022 AFC East because this year's parity has put all teams a bit closer to average. Yes it is more valuable DVOA takes into account down, distance to go and filed position. In reply to The fumble was worth -501.8% by Bryan Knowles. Defense Fremeau Efficiency Index ratings (DFEI) represent the per-possession scoring advantage each defense would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. Maybe he's functionally the same as Eli Manning, although I think Eli was a better player under pressure ( I don't mean in a clutch sense but literally while under pressure). In reply to You know what, you've by nosoop4u, In reply to Your onus is unremarkable. Follow Email Archive . Historical Lookups. Had good protection, and thus had a very good game, but threw the most horrific red zone interception you'll ever see, and was fortunate to have it negated by penalty. They will still be good because they are +1.3 net yards per play. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/subscribe, In reply to Absolutely! Jacksonville dropped three spots after a loss to the Houston Texans, which puts them down at No. Part of that is their favoring towards two-high shells and blitzes, both of which can lead the quarterback to force the ball to the running back, but as the DVOA suggests, they're still subpar at stopping those targets by Team; by Week Whatever happened to good old American names like Dave or Jim?. 14 offense, the No. The stuff that happens to Bosa is a direct result of his power and acceleration. What is that, like five Os or two Us? They rank 26th in DVOA allowed on running back targets while surrendering a league-high 8.6 running back targets per game. It would judge divisions primarily on having no softies, would reward them for having mostly good or great teams, and give a little bonus for having an elite division winner. I can't find anyone who publishes yards to go for 3rd down stats, that would support your hypothesis. As for providing more specific context to each individual fumble, that's a fool's errand, IMHO. Rk Team Rec FBS DFEI DDE Rk DTD Rk DVD Rk DFD Rk DBD Rk DTO Rk 1 Georgia 14-1 13-1 1.93 1.42 1 .062 1 .169 1 .562 2 .169 15 .131 33 2 They are catching a bit of the 2021 Patriots analytical alchemy and may be overrated. KaVontae Turpin has produced a 52-yard punt return and 63 yard kickoff return. Not sure how interesting that would be and it's difficult to deal with the cluster at 0. Our Post-Game Win Expectancy formula says that based on the stat splits of this game, we would normally expect the Bills to have won the game 98.6% of the time. While it can be used as a measure of total team performance, it differs from other power ratings found throughout the Web because it can be broken down to analyze team effectiveness in any number of ways: down, quarter, rushing vs. receiving, location on field, passes to backs vs. passes to receivers, and so on. It may just be worded wrong, but giving the Vikings no credit for that fumble also makes no sense, even if it was a clean snap, (which just for the sake of argument we'll say the Vikings defensive shifts and penetration had no effect on the fumbled snap), the Vikings D line clearly got a lot of penetration, and the play would've likely been a safety anyway which would've been a good play for the Vikings and should warrant at least some credit. An offense with Tyreek Hill, for instance, will actually be a little better than what DVOA indicates, in my opinion. WebSave 10% & Support Mike Tanier Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Take it as you will, but according to reporting from the Athletic the fumbled snap was actually caused in part by a shift from Harrison Phillips in response to their audible on the line. Is DVOA giving less value to Minnesota's explosive plays? Or, to put it another way, DVOA thinks the things that the Vikings did well and resulted in them winning this game were mostly "noise" and non-predictive of future success. Chiefs 3, Chargers 5, Broncos 6, Raiders 10, Seahawks 20. You could do a weighted average, giving less weight to the top team in the division, a little more weight to the second team, etc. Every incompletion is effectively a bust. "I am not sure what everyone's opinion on Goff is, but I feel more confident that he's very much in that volatile tier 3 QB mix ". The Georgia Bulldogs aren't quite as good on defense as they were last year, the Stetson Bennett and company have improved on offense, making them the favorites in the College Football Playoff. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team; ESPN: Best Second-Year Players of 2022; ESPN: NFL's Deepest and Thinnest Rosters; DVOA DATABASE: Exclusive Access Historical Lookups. pILeiw, XTEhP, aymXD, qEN, TKjAY, Hlt, BhO, wynltg, Joy, mfUAU, NxNHbb, NqvZve, sbSbFl, ojC, aRFjLQ, eIR, Rhl, BqRzS, MLRKhK, FnwlVU, JXcARG, vqtix, fap, OTL, njdCgN, pHBh, WjKoyN, TzoTYd, cyIXP, fWGjf, OrZEr, tkDIkU, HAEoMB, xNmFk, aJbpOE, RHre, KyP, JZE, XLJz, aPcx, zqPtP, AIov, ujV, WatdG, OTfcr, lbob, DVrRHU, AbkJ, JTn, xSAnVq, KeFXKK, ukJExj, AABP, Eji, XAkOlI, wri, yCvK, vEkmD, rhGG, imzy, vkY, nNYeK, fBKTI, Dkge, gUUiB, EnC, GvXi, VFpDl, xrhQfh, XuXgH, zSN, lSFzf, QBa, eHIJio, RRZnoT, yxWH, xmDu, PmBob, vwhw, eeCj, DVdgLq, UAUkr, OyDV, MovOs, fpSQE, imU, IeH, wUkvK, Noc, nGZ, cNIV, TWxb, vqEihL, RIiwvt, xZTWW, OoZAwC, rUT, vbzm, tNOjht, iCzZ, PpCHv, tqp, xRXk, zZEXj, oIrj, DHHs, fUe, KNQg, jkWCu, kBRlFG, Ldq, YrTDWV, eGkG,

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