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Imagine if the 49ers had held onto their late lead in the NFC Championship Game. teams that are "clutch" and make plays, offensively and defensively, when needed at critical moments (3rd down and red zone O & D, turnovers, etc. Since I can't craft a proper argument against the Bears getting smoked, I will cherry-pick bits from the article to criticize. You only need to register (for free) and then log in to the site to view these pages. Look for the Saints to make a run if they get some combination of Jameis Winston, Jarvis Landry, and Chris Olave back. Football Odds. I guess well see. While neither team can afford to be swept, it's the Giants with more pressure to get something out of these matchups. I've combed through Football Outsiders and ESPN Stats & Information metrics, and here is what I've found. In reply to You are giving me nothing by Pat. That leaves five slots for nine teams, which is the real race over the last six weeks. Well, surprise, the Falcons rank 10th in the league in both offensive DVOA and points scored. Ive never agreed with this sentiment. Realistically, Atlanta's going to need to pass Tampa Bay outright if they want to win the South. As for the Eagles and Cowboys, that Week 16 rematch is a killer; if the Cowboys win that they'll have split the head-to-head series and will likely have the divisional record tiebreaker to boot, barring a Week 18 slip-up against Washington. Do Giants trust Jones? There are a lot of expensive running backs on this slate who might just be worth paying up for. In reply to Well, how many consecutive by theslothook. Fortunately, the Seahawks get to watch the Giants and Commanders smash into each other's faces twice in the next three weeks, giving them every opportunity to get back into playoff position as those teams can't both win. In reply to You do sometimes post as if by Noahrk. So repeat success does not imply that you will win a title. On this week's Data Show, Aaron Schatz slightly re-worded Bill Parcells' famous quoteyou were what your record says you were. Yormark said when he visited with athletes on campuses, he found none that signed on because of the Big 12. Only ranked 18th in the league? 9.8 means you'll receive 98 for every 10 you bet, including your stake, if the bet wins. The television networks. Here are the top five. I got interesting answers, but one's that were hard to prove in data. I think most fans forget the "one and done" Faustian bargain a couple of years down the road. Are they really "worse" than 5 separate teams that have losing records now that are ranked higher in DVOA? But at least they have a clear path to the postseason, even if it's beyond their abilities. problem. If you want to see data from the current season on Monday, including all of Sunday's games, you will need to be an FO+ subscriber. In reply to SOMEBODY has to win the AFC by KnotMe. However, I took his sentiment in more of a completely hypothetical kind of way. and I can't believe anyone on this site still has faith in the Broncos. Ian O'Connor: New York Giants (+3) at Jacksonville Jaguars. ", In reply to "You can't be an eternal by Will Allen. Best Odds Bet In-Play Cash Out. Or if the coaching doesn't realize that they're doing this, but it's really friggen obvious. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. It would help if you could define consistently relevant. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Maybe - I have this niggling memory that real DVOA won't go much before 1980 due to lack of data, and anything else would basically be estimated DVOA. But they have already definitively lost the tiebreaker to New England thanks to losing both matchups, making it 14 straight wins for the Patriots in their series. We'll do this every week if it gets a good response: picks against the spread, straight-up upsets, and player prop bets the FO staff likes in Week 7, plus a bonus question each week. OSU-TCU in Fort Worth on Saturday. Also, if you think this is all organizational, care to make a prediction that the Packers next quarterback is going to be a Hall of famer? That man is an artist when angst and disappointment are his canvas. No cashout, stake not returned. 1 team at midseason, but they are not "frauds" boosted by an easy schedule. ), "constant relevance" definitely loses its shine. I just think in general, weve been very stagnant as a conference, Yormark said. Let's pick it anyway. Late in the game, against most opponents, less is more. This is the Football Outsiders Top 16 through nine weeks of 2022, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average (explained further here). Were winning in music, were winning in culture, were winning in lifestyle. There's no HoF monitor "cutoff." You were successful on a whopping29%of your dropbacks, worst in the league last week. You might remember that Todd Collins had to start for the injured Jay Cutler. A Vikings-Bills Super Bowl would be great; both teams with 4 losses and no wins, and an all-time classic already played during the season? But then, presumably the Ravens, Dolphins, and/or Bills will just slot in atop this group anyway, leaving everyone else scrapping over the seventh seed. And then you have the Packers and Broncos, who were in the top 10 in preseason Super Bowl betting odds. Its not why I come here to FO and I also regret my comment above. It'd be a lot different without that Super Bowl victory in '17 (or Reid's Super Bowl victory, which in my opinion solidified the idea that "can't win the big one" is horse crap). The Colts are now far, far behind the rest of the league in offensive DVOA. I envision a big day for Justin Herbert and this offense against a below-average pass defense. As for the Bills, well, they may still have the best DVOA in the league and that signature win over Kansas City in their back pocket, but they're only 10th with a 15.3% DVOA over the past six weeks, dropping games to the Jets and Vikings along the way. On the other hand, Fields is on pace for 79.9 scrambles for 761.7 yards, so he is not really on a list with Allen and Wilson, but in nearly uncharted territory. But that's a topic for another day. The Patriots did slightly better, at 3.3 net yards per play. Much of Burrow's production came in the Bengals' wins over the Falcons and Panthers, where they raced out to huge halftime leads. You can see from the splits that the Jets have improved significantly on both sides of the ball, although their special teams have not been as good over the last five weeks. Seattle is 24th or worse in DVOA defending passes against WR1s (24th), WR2s (25th), tight ends (30th), and running backs (31st). Either that or alot of red zone fails I guess. And they aren't getting to the quarterback at all, ranking last in the league in sacks as well as adjusted sack rate. The Pats have won several super bowls even though they were not the best team that year, so as a fan I obviously cannot complain. A land of slide rules and pocket protectors. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? Personally, I don't think such a thing exists. Plus, of course, other people. We want to get the Big 12 on the consciousness of everyone., Tramel:2023 Big 12 football schedule still a mystery, but league can't just push a button. One final thoughts before the next segment: the leaders in pass attempts while leading by 14 or more points since 2015 are: Tom Brady in 2015 (118 attempts), Tom Brady in 2016 (104), Tom Brady in 2019 (96), Tom Brady in 2021 (94), and Matt Ryan in 2016 (92), with Lamar Jackson a surprising sixth with 89 attempts in 2020. But just to be 100 percent clear, I do believe the Ravens have that organizational magic. This isn't a tiebreaker problem, this is a "can we please stomp somebody?" The Packers have the highest odds by our numbers (3.8%), but even if Jordan Love were to take over and go undefeated the rest of the way, they'd still be just 9-8 with head-to-head losses to real contenders such as the Commanders and Giants. In reply to The Dungy/Moore/Manning era by takeleavebelieve. & Support Mike Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . The Jaguars are in a similar boat, with a 4.4% chance to win the AFC South. Maybe it's silly, but I've met fans of the Chiefs(prior to 2019) and the Jets who have only foggy memories if at all about their team's first title and opining with great sorrow if they will ever get to see it/appreciate it as adults. Were going to story tell, Yormark said. In reply to Being consistently relevant by Aaron Brooks G. Against my better judgement, I will try once more. Denver, at 14th, is the only other team in the upper half of the league in DVOA that's 2-4 or worse, and I like the Jaguars' odds of catching Tennessee and Indianapolis more than I like Denver surpassing Kansas City or finding a spot in the AFC's crowded wild-card field. Now, you may be thinking that Cousins might deserve Hall of Fame consideration if he indeed leads the Vikings to a Super Bowl win. The two teams combined for just 2.66 net yards per play, which is the fifth-lowest combined average in any game since 1981 and the lowest combined average of this century. 98, went to France expecting great things, but only France got great things. The 49ers had better pass defense DVOA in Weeks 2-4 than they had in Week 1! It's actually kinda amazing that only 1 was worked out (MIA) so far. Now thats bold, by Big 12 standards. The Panthers and Saints could be written off entirely if they didn't happen to play in the NFC South. But the 49ers have the third-highest variance in football, thanks in large part to getting rocked by the Chiefs. We'll have to see more games to see if these breakouts are for real. And I think DVOA is overrating the Jets because they have had a string of performances against backup quarterbacksthey're still a top-10 defense in DVOA even if you take out games against backups in Miami, Denver, and Chicago, but our numbers have them in the top five. I think for now it's unequivocally yes. Like the national consciousness. A couple of teams where I'm not even going to bother posting the numbers, but you know they've been worse over the last month: The Colts and Patriots put on a terrible display of offensive football on Sunday, bad enough that it got Frank Reich fired. While Ehlinger finished with a negative rushing DVOA in his first NFL start, the Colts did design run plays specifically for Ehlinger. Note: Chiefs were originally three-point favorites when this was written earlier in the week.). We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. If you trust your quarterback, and with the names listed above you definitely should, wouldn't you be tempted to put it in their hands. Outside of that Thanksgiving game against the Bills, there aren't many great offenses left on the table, so that whole "worst defense in the league" thing may adjust. Does DVOA have a turnover penalty? Does Philly have some 100% lost game you're not telling us about? To go back the Seahawks, the coaches ran completely different schemes. You've got staff setups, partnerships, other organizations that all drive the overall organization. New 5 or 10 Football Bet Bundles. The league sent a designated driver to get them home. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Do they not self-scout? Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? It's a bit of a theoretical discussion, though, because there's little evidence that "tanking" plus "win now" cycles increase the chance of winning Super Bowls compared to building teams that are consistently relevant. Thats not exactly what Yormark meant his working knowledge of college sports was minimal at the time and he barely understood all the tentacles of conference movement. NFL Week 13 December 01, 9:30 am ET 0. ), "bend but don't break" defenses (12th in fewest points allowed despite giving up the 25th most yards/game), offenses which can string successful plays together when they need points (9th in points scored despite being 16th in offensive yards/game), not giving away free yards on things like touchbacks on kicks and punts, as well aspenalties (5th in most punts inside the 20, 0 touchbacks on punts all year, 2nd in average starting field position, 5th in fewest penalty yards/game, etc. In most games, However, New England's biggest weakness has been against running quarterbacks, not running backs. Let's say the Vikings earn the first-round bye, draw some cannon fodder like the Giants in the first round, beat the Eagles in an NFC Championship Game grudge match, and reach the Super Bowl. So they're having trouble covering wide receivers of all varieties. Hadn't thought of that before. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Week 7 Staff Picks: Jags, Saints, and Other Stragglers, Support Football Outsiders' independent media. I am going to take a leap of faith that makes my stomach churn. Baylor at West Virginia on Thursday. In Va. 10: Penalty Box (4.83) Win or Lose. San Francisco also ranks 30th against runs in the red zone, and that's not likely to continue. The Football odds shown in the blue boxes are set by the layers, and the odds shown in the pink boxes are set by the backers. I lived through Philly over that same time period. Not just two titles, but one of the greatest upsets in NFL history to boot. By using the harmonic mean, this analysis in effect says that DVOA is the wrong way to evaluate a teams offense. Burrow had to do something for the entire second half of those games, so he threw lots of short passes to help move the chains. ", In reply to Nothing about offensive by Pat. We're trying something new this week, with staff picks from the FO writers. He still has special moments and can upgrade the players around him. The Vikings, Chargers, and Titans are "fringe" relevant teams. Because the actual rules never apply to the Packers. As an Eagles fan, I can speak to this. Mike Tanier: Houston Texans (+7) vs. Las Vegas Raiders. Id rather my team be consistently relevant and in the mix than have a one and done title. Mack Hollins isn't a young player -- this is his sixth year in the NFL -- but he's another surprising wide receiver having a strong early season. This is where I say that criteria can make no sense. Walsh and Siefert spent like a decade trying to get rid of Montana. The point is, successful teams get a window of time. Alex Smith had a game where he had a negative ANY/A with 42 net passing yards, 0 TDs, and 4 INTs. Is this ever going to be useful? And it's probably the last time we'll get to say that, too, as the clock is finally beginning to run out on the bottom-feeders. Exhibitionist & Voyeur 04/06/17 In reply to As a 34 year old Titans fan by Shylo, I can say it's worth it. But for now, Yormark has everyones attention. If they can get an early lead and play from ahead, I like their chances. 1 team. As it stands as this goes live on Thursday afternoon, all 32 teams are still alive for the playoffs. It will go away one day, but here you and I are in complete argeement. They should stomp on Chicago's throats from the opening kick. Jackson Roberts: Las Vegas Raiders. Join Betfair Now But the difference is that you'recriticizing other people who do. Saying "that has no relation to the NFL" makes no sense. "Remember when he nearly led Washington to a win over Tampa Bay", ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). 4 overall pick Pitts, who has just 150 receiving yards and no touchdowns in four games. In reply to I'd be surprised if they by mehllageman56. Because everyones rallying around it. Because they won, those series of moves feel vindicated. Injuries have played a role here and it's really just three bad games in Weeks 6-8. Or Packers fans for the 2011 season? Two weeks of Kirk Cousins takes will then ensue. Walkthrough has done the Saints cap situation to death, and we have warned many teams about Theoretical Jameis, the turnover-free version of Winston folks always seem to think is just one coaching change or optical procedure away. Same stretch of time, the Packers have 12 division titles. Betfairs Betting Exchange lets you bet against other people and get great odds on thousands of markets every day. So I hope you don't think I have completely dismissed your views. Jacksonville had that huge win over Indianapolis in Week 2, so of course splitting their season in two shows them getting worse. I suspect they would. To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:
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